Australia’s housing market continued its upward trajectory in November, but the pace of growth is noticeably easing. The Cotality National Home Value Index (HVI) rose by 1.0%, marking a slight moderation from the 1.1% gain recorded in October. This slowdown is primarily due to constraints in the largest, most expensive markets.
The national headline figure masks a significant divergence between cities. Values in the major eastern capitals—Sydney, which rose 0.5%, and Melbourne, which lifted just 0.3%—are clearly slowing. This trend suggests that record-high prices and stretched affordability are putting a ceiling on price growth in these large markets.
In contrast, the mid-sized capitals and regional markets remain firmly in a strengthening phase. Perth was the standout performer, surging 2.4% in November, representing an increase of around $21,000 to its median dwelling value in a single month. Brisbane and Adelaide also demonstrated strong momentum, both rising by 1.9%. This trend indicates that buyer demand remains elevated in markets where supply is low and values are relatively more accessible. Regional markets across Australia performed equally well, collectively recording a 1.1% rise.
A key factor weighing on the market is affordability. The ratio of median dwelling value to household income now sits at a national record high of 8.2 times. Coupled with the expectation that interest rates will be held steady for an extended period due to renewed inflation pressures, serviceability challenges are worsening for prospective borrowers. This environment is likely to further slow market momentum into the new year.
The shift in market dynamics presents specific considerations for different groups.
For homeowners considering selling
The strong growth experienced over the past three months has added significant value to many homes. However, market conditions are becoming more complex. Auction clearance rates have eased, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, dropping below the decade average by mid-November. If you are selling, pricing your property correctly from the outset and moving quickly to capitalise on buyer demand before serviceability barriers tighten further will be critical.
For homeowners holding or renovating
The fundamental drivers of price growth—persistently low supply of established homes and new builds—are not disappearing soon. This suggests a continuation of a constrained, appreciating market into 2026, albeit at a slower pace. Homeowners should feel confident in the medium to long-term outlook. Renovating for necessity or enjoyment, rather than relying solely on a short-term equity gain, remains a sound strategy.
For first home buyers
Affordability is the central challenge. The current market is seeing demand deflected towards the lower price points, where government incentives like the deposit guarantee are concentrated. This increase in competition at the entry-level means first-home buyers are being crowded out. Your priority must be to navigate credit access barriers. Look closely at mid-sized capitals and regional centres, where median values are significantly lower and growth is strongest, offering a clearer path to home ownership.
The market continues to operate under dual pressures: low supply pushing prices up, and high interest rates and strained affordability pulling them down.
Monthly change in capital city home values
| MONTHLY | ANNUAL | |
| Sydney | ↑ 0.5% | ↑ 5.1% |
| Melbourne | ↑ 0.3% | ↑ 4.2% |
| Brisbane | ↑ 1.9% | ↑ 12.8% |
| Adelaide | ↑ 1.9% | ↑ 8.2% |
| Perth | ↑ 2.4% | ↑ 13.1 |
| Hobart | 1.2% | ↑ 4.7% |
| Darwin | ↑ 1.9% | ↑ 17.0% |
| Canberra | ↑ 1.0% | ↑ 4.2% |
| National | ↑ 1.0% | ↑ 7.5% |
DISCLAIMER
The following advice is of a general nature only and intended as a broad guide. The advice should not be regarded as legal, financial, or real estate advice. You should make your own inquiries and obtain independent professional advice tailored to your specific circumstances before making any legal, financial, or real estate decisions. Click here for full Terms of Use.