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Rental growth slows as vacancies tighten further

Australia’s rental market remains under intense pressure, with vacancies hitting a record low and rental growth accelerating once again. On the Sunshine Coast — particularly in Caloundra and the surrounding suburbs — demand continues to outpace supply, keeping competition among tenants high and properties leasing quickly. This local pressure mirrors the national trend, but Caloundra’s lifestyle appeal and limited new housing stock make conditions even more challenging for renters and increasingly strategic for investors.

According to the latest CoreLogic (Cotality) Home Value Index, the national vacancy rate dropped to 1.4 per cent in September, with just 1.1 per cent of units and 1.7 per cent of houses available for lease. The renewed decline in rental availability has pushed the national Rental Index up 0.5 per cent for the month, marking the fastest pace of growth since mid-2024. Over the September quarter, rents rose 1.4 per cent, the sharpest increase since June last year.

In Caloundra and nearby coastal suburbs such as Currimundi, Battery Hill and Golden Beach, vacancy rates have remained exceptionally low, sitting around 0.5–1 per cent for most of the year. Houses close to the beach or within popular school catchments continue to attract multiple applications within days of listing, with many tenants extending leases rather than risk entering a highly competitive market. For landlords, this environment provides strong occupancy stability, but it also highlights the importance of proactive maintenance and fair rent reviews to retain quality tenants long-term.

Among the capitals, Darwin led rental gains with a 2.9 per cent quarterly increase, followed by Hobart (1.9 per cent) and Perth (1.7 per cent). Adelaide and Melbourne recorded the smallest rises at 0.4 and 0.8 per cent respectively, while Sydney’s rent growth eased from earlier highs. The data highlights a market that remains undersupplied but is starting to show signs of uneven momentum across cities.

The challenge for landlords is that higher rental income does not necessarily translate to higher profit. Maintenance costs, insurance premiums and mortgage interest remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels. While recent interest rate cuts have offered some relief, many investors are still servicing loans at elevated rates after refinancing during last year’s peak cycle.

Gross rental yields have slipped slightly to 3.65 per cent, down from earlier in the year, as property values have risen faster than rents. Darwin remains the nation’s most lucrative market with yields of 7.8 per cent for units, while Sydney sits at the lower end with 2.6 per cent for houses. Nationally, yields remain below their long-term average, a reminder that capital growth is again leading total returns.

For investors, the persistent shortage of available rentals continues to underpin stability. Over the four weeks to late September, the number of advertised rental properties was around 25 per cent below the previous five-year average, with demand still elevated by strong population growth and constrained new supply.

Cotality’s research director, Tim Lawless, warns that the tight conditions are likely to continue. However, he also notes that affordability pressures are now a critical issue, with rental increases feeding into inflation and attracting greater regulatory focus. Several state governments are reviewing tenancy laws, bond reforms and planning incentives aimed at encouraging new supply rather than rent controls.

For landlords, the key is balance. Retaining good tenants, maintaining properties well and staying compliant with new legislation are increasingly central to long-term performance.

The outlook suggests continued low vacancies and moderate rental growth, tempered by affordability limits and evolving policy settings. Investors who prioritise quality management and steady, responsible returns will be best placed to navigate what remains one of the tightest rental markets in decades.

Gross rental yields nationally

Sydney3.0%
Melbourne3.7%
Brisbane3.6%
Adelaide3.6%
Perth4.2%
Hobart4.4%
Darwin6.5%
Canberra4.0%
National3.7%